Fantasy Football Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Does it seem to you like the first full Sunday of regular season NFL action is still a ways off?

I don’t know why, but it does for me. Then I look at the calendar and – surprise, surprise! – we’re just a week away from a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday, and a mere five days away from the official kickoff of the 2010 season in the Superdome.

And that means it is time to start thinking about your Week 1 lineups.

As I did every week last year, I will once again be delving into the matchups to highlight guys you might normally start who you should think about sitting and, on the flip side, guys you might normally sit who you should think about starting.

Update: A new fantasy football feature on MSF this year is yours truly and his bearded mug on YouTube yapping about fantasy strategy. View Episode 1 of Fantasy Football 3-2-1 here, and you can view the recently posted Episode 2 right here:

And now back to your regularly scheduled start em, sit em advice.

Now remember: the advice here is not absolute; by that I mean that just because I say “sit Brett Favre” doesn’t mean I’d start Derek Anderson over him. It just means that you should downgrade Favre from what you’d normally expect, and if you have a reasonable backup option – like, say, Alex Smith – you might want to consider starting him.

I know you know this, but I just feel better saying it so we’re all on the same page.

Week 1 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Lineup Advice

Start ‘em QB: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (vs Green Bay)

I’m not as high on Kolb as many are, mainly because I just don’t trust quarterbacks who have only started a handful of games. That said, the Packers have a banged up secondary that is essentially Charles Woodson and some scrubs, and we know that Andy Reid will not be shy about letting his young QB air it out.

Also in Kolb’s favor from a fantasy perspective is the fact that Green Bay just might have the most explosive offense in football – Indy and New Orleans included – which means that Kolb and the Eagles will have to throw early and often to keep up. That’s a great recipe for fantasy success, even for a newbie like Kolb.

Kevin Kolb Week 1 projection: 325 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Other Start ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• Don’t be scared about starting Philip Rivers even with Vincent Jackson out. Kansas City is not great on defense and Malcolm Floyd will step right in. Rivers is fine.
• Jay Cutler is going to be up and down this season, and he may get whacked a few times by Ndamukong Suh, but you have to start him against Detroit.
• Alex Smith is a sneaky Week 1 play. Seattle is bad all around and the 49ers have an underrated offense with passing game play makers like Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, and Josh Morgan.

Sit ‘em QB: Brett Favre, Minnesota (at New Orleans)

I’m glad I don’t own Brett Favre in any leagues because he absolutely terrifies me this year. Another year of age, his apparent reluctance to return, the loss of Sidney Rice, the mysteries of Percy Harvin…I could go on and on.

Still, despite all of that, logic suggests that Favre will still be a worthwhile fantasy starter most weeks. He might not be as good as last year, but even 85-90% of that is still pretty good.

But Thursday night against New Orleans? In what is sure to be a raucous Superdome? I believe Senate Minority Leader John Boehner said it best: Hell no!

It’s become a cliche this offseason to say that the Saints showed everyone the “blueprint” for how to beat Old Favre: knock him around. But it’s a cliche because it’s true. And while the Saints weren’t exactly splitting the atom in devising this strategy, it is surely what they will try again.

Without his favorite deep threat, with the ankle apparently still tender, and with a packed house of screaming New Orleansites against them, I see the Vikings just trying to get out of this game alive. There won’t be much fantasy goodness to be had for anyone in purple but AD.

Brett Favre Week 1 projection: 175 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 INT

Other Sit ‘em QBs for Week 1:

• I have to admit, I’m a little worried about Tony Romo, and the fact that Dallas opens at Washington, a team that has played the Cowboys tough in recent years, worries me even more. The Cowboys offense is struggling and I’d like to see Romo get going before I confidently start him.
• I’m also worried about the other QB in that game, Donovan McNabb. He’s been hobbled, and the Cowboys can pressure the quarterback.
• Chad Henne is facing Buffalo, a team that cannot do much right but has one of the best secondaries in football.

Start ‘em RB: C.J. Spiller, Buffalo (vs Miami)

I know what you’re probably thinking: what? Mr. Rookie Hater is suggesting we start CJ Spiller in his first ever game? What gives???

Here is what gives: Spiller is the most talented rookie running back this year and needs little help from his QB or O-line to do what he does best, which is break off big runs. He might get stuffed 10-12 times, but Spiller is already among the handful of most explosive backs in the game and only needs one or two big runs to create a productive stat line.

And in Week 1 he will not have Fred Jackson or Marshawn Lynch there to steal his touches. It will be the CJ Spiller show and he will clearly be the most talented offensive player on his team. There is no way he gets less than 15 touches, and I like his chances – especially with a little dose of NFL debut adrenaline – of turning those 15-20 touches into 100+ yards and a score.

Be cautious though. Future weeks could get dicey when Buffalo goes on the road and when Jackson and Lynch crowd the backfield.

C.J. Spiller Week 1 projection: 17 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 30 yards

Other Start ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I talked about him in this week’s Black & White debate: Matt Forte will have a very good season. In Week 1 he gets to face a normally generous Detroit defense. I like his chances for success.
• Another guy I wrote about this week is Jerome Harrison, and I like him a lot in Week 1. Tampa Bay was not good against the run last year, and Harrison no longer has Montario Hardesty to worry about.
• I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Darren McFadden might not be a bad flex option in Week 1, if for not other reason than he will be getting feature back carries. Michael Bush is hurt, so McFadden is basically all they’ve got. In a PPR league, definitely start him. In a regular league, at least consider it.

Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (vs Baltimore)

Maybe you weren’t even considering starting LT anyway; if so, good for you.

I’m definitely not as bullish on him this year as others are. In this game, I definitely wouldn’t start him. The Ravens may have question marks galore in their secondary, but this team can still stop the run, and I just don’t see Tomlinson getting enough chances to make anything happen.

Could he vulture a TD? Sure he could. And for that reason he’ll never be a terrible flex play. Still, there are plenty of guys who will get more carries, even in a backup role, against worse defenses (Thomas Jones comes to mind) that should be started over Tomlinson.

LaDainian Tomlinson Week 1 projection: 8 carries, 22 yards, 0 TD, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other Sit ‘em RBs for Week 1:

• I do not have high hopes at all for Brandon Jacobs this season. You shouldn’t either. I’d sit him against Carolina in Week 1.
• I know that people are high on Felix Jones, but I still have trouble trusting him. Washington is normally good on defense, so I worry about Felix making a huge impact.
• Jonathan Stewart did not play at all in the preseason. Considering that he’s in a time-share with DeAngelo Williams as it is, I’m not real high on playing him. I’d take a wait-and-see and make sure he’s fully healthy and ready to produce.

Start ‘em WR: Jacoby Jones, Houston (vs Indianapolis)

I don’t often go out on this far a limb for my main pick at a particular position, but I have a good feeling about Jacoby Jones in Week 1.

First of all, it’s Houston-Indy, which means a lot of points will be scored. Secondly, by all accounts Jones has established himself as the second best receiver on the Texans. Thirdly, Jones has Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, and even the returning-from-injury Owen Daniels to take attention away from him. I have confidence that Jones can win one-on-one matchups in the secondary, and that Matt Schaub will find him.

The Texans are treating their Week 1 matchup against the Colts like it’s their Super Bowl. I think they’ll win the game, and I think Jacoby Jones will be the #1 most added player before Week 2. (He’s only 66% owned in Yahoo leagues right now…which is crazy!)

Jacoby Jones Week 1 fantasy projection: 5 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I like Terrell Owens to make a splash in his first game with Cincy. Plus, New England’s defense apparently is going to be awful this year.
• Jabar Gaffney is the #1 WR in Denver and has built the most rapport with Kyle Orton. I see that carrying over into a strong Week 1 performance.
• Michael Crabtree may have gotten into a shouting match with his tight end, but I think all will be well in Week 1 when the underrated 49ers offense takes on Seattle. Crabtree may be a diva, but he’s a talented one.

Sit ‘em WR: Wes Welker, New England (vs Cincinnati)

Long-term, I really like Wes Welker in PPR leagues this year, but it is important to note that Welker hasn’t sounded overly confident this week regarding his comeback from knee surgery. Sure, he’s not going on the PUP list, he’s played during the preseason, and he’ll start in Week 1…but he’s been quick to admit that he doesn’t feel like himself.

I don’t own Welker in any leagues this year, but I’d sit him in Week 1 if I had a decent option on my bench. #1, I’d like to see him produce in a real game to gain confidence. #2, Cincinnati has one of the best secondaries in the NFL.

Welker might very well prove healthy and ready to go with a strong performance…but it’s far from guaranteed, and you should set your lineup accordingly.

Wes Welker Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 47 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em WRs for Week 1:

• I love Mike Wallace this year, but I don’t know that I love him with the Steelers’ first and second QB options on the bench. Wallace becomes a monster once Big Ben gets back though.
• Resist the urge to play Dez Bryant if you own him. He’s coming off of an injury, the Cowboys are facing Washington, and he’s competing with a lot of talented players for touches. Let him prove himself first.
• This is the first opportunity I’ve had to do this in 2010, so I’m going to take it: sit Braylon Edwards. I don’t care that he’s playing Baltimore’s non-existent secondary. He sucks and his QB has been playing poorly. Wait for glimpses of 2007 before you even think about starting Braylon.

Start ‘em TE: Zach Miller, Oakland (at Tennessee)

Zach Miller is a hot name as a TE sleeper in 2010, and I agree. His new QB Jason Campbell was very fond of Chris Cooley in Washington, and I think Miller could put up Cooley-esque numbers in 2010. Against a Tennessee defense that is tough to run on, and with nary a dependable candidate on the outside, Campbell will likely go to Miller early and often.

Zach Miller Week 1 fantasy projection: 8 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD

Other Start ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Speaking of Chris Cooley…he’s back. Don’t forget about him. He should have a solid Week 1.
• Keep your eye on Jermaine Gresham. New England is not good defensively and Carson Palmer likes his new tight end toy.

Sit ‘em TE: John Carlson, Seattle (vs San Francisco)

For the life of me I cannot understand why so many people are high on John Carlson this year. What has he ever really done? With an over-the-hill QB and facing one of the league’s toughest defenses, I just don’t see the upside.

John Carlson Week 1 fantasy projection: 4 receptions, 30 yards, 0 TD

Other Sit ‘em TEs for Week 1:

• Owen Daniels is going to be brought back slowly by the Texans. He could still catch a TD, but I’d prefer to sit him if I could and see how active he’ll be in the early part of the season.
• Greg Olsen sucks. Don’t be seduced by the Detroit matchup. I want to see consistency from Olsen before I consider starting him.

Start ‘em D/ST: Miami Dolphins (at Buffalo)

The Dolphins are the defense I’ve targeted for Week 1 in as many leagues as I can. They can pressure the QB, should see improved play from their two young corners, and have a great matchup in Buffalo. The Bills are still relying on Trent Edwards at QB and basically will have C.J. Spiller and maybe a deep ball or two to Lee Evans; that’s it.

Miami Dolphins D/ST Week 1 projection: 14 points or less, 3 forced turnovers

Other Start ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know Dallas is supposed to have a great offense, but I still like Washington in Week 1. They play Dallas tough and the Cowboys did not click at all during the preseason.
• I don’t like Arizona’s defense for the season, but you have to like any D facing a rookie QB in his first start don’t you? Arizona plays St. Louis, where Sam Bradford could start. If he doesn’t start, it’ll be AJ Feeley, which isn’t much better.

Sit ‘em D/ST: New England Patriots (vs Cincinnati)

The Patriots are being drafted based on reputation, but that’s a mistake. This defense has looked terrible in the preseason and is devoid of the playmakers we’re used to. Mix in a Week 1 matchup against a rejuvenated Cincy offense and I think it’s a recipe for fantasy disaster.

New England Patriots D/ST Week 1 projection: 25 points or more, 1 forced turnover

Other Sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 1:

• I know that the Giants are supposed to be much improved on D this year, but I still want to see it before I buy it.
• I like Minnesota long-term this season, but not in Week 1 at the Saints. I just have a really bad feeling about this game for the Vikings.

Now, I’ve given you some of my picks. Tell me whether you agree or disagree, and ask me any and all lineup questions, in the comment section. I’ll do my best to respond as promptly as I can.

Good luck in Week 1 everybody!